ANALYSIS: Liberals Rocked by Byelection Results as Opposition Parties See Little Motivation to Change Strategy

The leaders of the Bloc Québécois and NDP expressed satisfaction with their respective victories in the Sept. 16 byelections in Montreal and Winnipeg, but neither signalled a desire to expedite the fall of the minority Liberal government. The Liberals, meanwhile, have suffered the loss of another stronghold with the defeat in Montreal.
Bloc Leader Yves-François Blanchet said his party is “extremely happy” and “honoured” to win the LaSalle-Émard-Verdun riding, defeating the Liberals in their stronghold by a few hundred votes.
Blanchet repeated what he had said in days prior to the vote with regard to his party’s intentions with the minority government. “I will be eager to go into an election as soon as I get the impression that the Liberals won’t be inclined to give us what we want,” he told reporters on Sept. 17.
The Bloc said it will try to make gains from the Liberals on issues like support for seniors in exchange for backing on confidence votes. Blanchet said there have been no discussions with the Liberals yet.
While wanting to make gains, Blanchet doesn’t give the government much time, saying the NDP had pulled the “grenade pin” by breaking the supply-and-confidence agreement that kept the minority Liberal government in power.
“When you pull the pin on a grenade, it will blow up sooner or later,” he said.
NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh has also not changed his tune after his party won the byelection in the Winnipeg riding of Elmwood-Transcona, although with a much smaller margin compared to the 2021 election.
“As we said before, it’s going to remain the same,” Singh said when asked by reporters whether the results had changed his political calculations.
“We’re going to look at each vote that comes before us in the House. We’re going to take that vote very seriously,” he said on Sept. 17.
It was a small pullback from 2021 in the NDP stronghold, when Daniel Blaikie had won with 49.7 percent. Meanwhile, the Tories made big gains by climbing almost 16 percent.
While the NDP finished third in a close contest in LaSalle-Émard-Verdun, the party increased its vote share by over 6 percent.
While they have been less competitive in these ridings, national polls have put them way ahead of other parties over an extended period.
“Obviously, the Conservatives want to have an election as soon as possible in order to take advantage of the current environment,” Nik Nanos, chief data scientist and founder of the Nanos Research, told The Epoch Times in an interview.
The pollster says it’s too early to tell whether the NDP will change its strategy.
“If the NDP numbers start moving up, who knows, maybe the NDP will be hot to do an election,” he said.
Kevin Gaudet from Bright Point Strategy also notes the NDP did “fairly well” in the byelections and wonders if its future trending could change its calculus.
He doesn’t see the NDP wanting an election, and says pulling out of its deal with the governing Liberals was more a long-term move to reposition itself before the next planned election.
“It’s a start of a long-term strategy for the NDP to distance itself from this very unpopular government,” he said in an interview.
Ultimately, LeDrew doesn’t think a vote of non-confidence will pass, given how different opposition parties need to come together.
Nelson Wiseman, professor emeritus of political science at the University of Toronto, also doubts the minority government will fall.
“That’s not happening unless there’s a really big scandal,” he told The Epoch Times in an interview.
“MPs don’t want to have an election if they don’t have to have an election, there’s always a threat they’re going to be defeated,” he said. Even for MPs running in safe Bloc seats in northern or rural Quebec, campaigning is hard work, said Wiseman.
“You’d rather be just sitting in Parliament or sitting at a committee meeting.”